Election Analysis

Looking over the General Assembly results, here are some key points of interest. In the NC Senate, 15 candidates ran unopposed (11 Republicans and 3 Democrats). There would have been two more if not for a Libertarian candidate in districts 20 and 44. (Thank you, Barbara Howe and Nick Haag). Of the contested races, only 4 were decided by 10% or less of the vote. In other words, only 8% of the state Senate races were competitive.

In the House, 54 candidates ran unopposed (37 Democrats and 17 Republicans), one ran only against a write-in, and 9 races were decided by 10% or less of the vote. In other words, only 7.5% of the state House races were competitive.

The Democrats and their sycophants love to moan about how the Republicans are destroying democracy, yet they lacked the courage to challenge the Republicans in 28 legislative races.

In a few of the competitive races, the Libertarian vote “covered the spread” between the Democrat and Republican. In House 49 David Ulmer got 4.15% and the incumbent Republican lost by 1.48%. Over in House 36 Brian Irving got 4.25% and the incumbent Republican won by only 2.77%.

In Senate 17 Susan Hogarth got 4.24% and the incumbent Republican won by only 0.85%. In Senate 15 Brad Hessel came in just under the spread. He got 4.31% and the incumbent Republican won by 4.32%

For comparison, in 2014 there were 18 unopposed races in the Senate and 57 in the House. Three Senate and 21 House seats were unopposed in both 2014 and 2016: Senate 32, 35, and 43, and House 4, 12, 14, 19, 21, 24, 29, 39, 42, 43, 45, 47, 48, 99, 100, 102, 107, 108, 110, 111, and 114.

If you look at a map, you’ll note how the safe districts are clustered. Another point is that both establishment parties benefit nearly equally.

Keep in mind that the district lines a liable to change for the 2018 election. The legislature is contesting a court ruling that some of these districts are unconstitutional and may be forced to redraw the lines.